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CSU forecasts nine named storms during the June through November Atlantic hurricane season.

Colorado State University (CSU) expects below-average Atlantic hurricane activity during the 2026 hurricane season, according to its latest seasonal outlook discussed in an interview published by Gallagher Re. Researchers cite strengthening El Niño conditions as the primary factor behind the reduced forecast.

CSU forecasts nine named storms during the June through November Atlantic hurricane season. Of those, four are expected to become hurricanes, including one major hurricane classified as Category 3 through 5. That compares with 13 named storms, five hurricanes, and four major hurricanes during the 2025 season.

El Niño Drives Updated Forecast

Dr. Phil Klotzbach, senior research scientist at Colorado State University, said the forecast was lowered after conditions shifted more toward a below-average season.

According to Klotzbach, El Niño typically increases vertical wind shear across the tropical Atlantic. Higher wind shear disrupts hurricane development and makes storms less likely to strengthen.

The forecast also includes an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) value of 50 for the Atlantic basin. The 1991-2020 average is 123, while the recorded value for 2025 was 133. ACE measures the combined intensity and duration of named storms and serves as an indicator of their potential for wind and storm surge destruction.

Researchers also forecast an ACE value of 25 west of 60 degrees longitude, down from 100 in 2025. That region includes the Caribbean, Central America, and much of the continental United States affected by Atlantic hurricanes.

Lower Landfall Probabilities

CSU estimates a 17% probability that at least one major hurricane will strike the U.S. coastline during the 2026 season. The historical average from 1880 through 2020 is 43%.

For the Caribbean, researchers estimate a 19% chance of at least one major hurricane landfall, compared with the historical average of 47%.

Klotzbach said El Niño years generally produce fewer storms, hurricanes and major landfalls in both the United States and the Caribbean. However, he noted that landfalls can still occur.

Research Continues on Forecasting

Klotzbach said seasonal forecasts are more useful for evaluating regional risk than predicting impacts at individual locations. He added that CSU combines historical data with statistical and statistical-dynamical models and has begun testing artificial intelligence climate emulators to speed forecasting simulations.

The university will issue its next hurricane outlook on Aug. 5. Klotzbach said approximately 95% of major Atlantic hurricane activity typically remains after early August, and forecasts generally become more accurate as the season progresses.

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